台湾宏观经济波动的外部协同性研究——基于属权贸易假设的两岸经济关联度考证

External Co-movement of Taiwan Macroeconomic Fluctuations:A Study of Correlation Based on Ownership-based Trade Across the Taiwan Strait

经济周期波动的外部协同程度可以反映参与区域经济合作的可能性。国际(区际)贸易是促进经济周期波动同步性的主要传导渠道,但却未必促进跨时期协动机制的形成。针对我国台湾地区、我国大陆以及世界市场的经济波动成分建立结构向量自回归模型,研究结果表明:三者宏观经济波动之间表现出显著的同步性特征;但两岸经济体跨时期的波动相关性不明显,这表明二者之间尚未能建立起实质性的经济关联。其原因可能是台湾地区向中国大陆地区的大规模产业转移而引致的属权贸易偏差,导致现实统计的双边贸易流量不能发挥必要的乘数效应。

The external co-movement of periodic economic fluctuations can reflect the possibility of a country＇s participation in regional economic cooperation.International（inter-regional） trade is the most important ch annel through which the synchronization of periodic economic fluctuations rather than the mechanism of cross-periodic co-movement can be promoted.A structural vector-autoregression model（SVAR） has been constructed,which include the macroeconomic fluctuation components of Taiwan Province,the Chinese mainland and the world market.Our results indicate that there is a significant synchronization among the macroeconomic fluctuations in these three sections,but insignificant relevance between economic fluctuations across the Taiwan Strait.This shows that a substantial correlation has not been established between these two economies.The major reason for this may be that the massive industrial transfer from Taiwan to the Chinese mainland has brought about s o much ownership-based trade aberrancy that the statistics on the cross-strait trade cannot exert an essential multiplier-effect.