人民币升值、热钱流入与房价的关系——基于趋势性和波动性的研究

An Analysis of the Relationship of RMB Appreciation,Hot Money Inflow and House Price:Trends and Fluctuations

本文对热钱流入与我国房价之间的相互关系和作用机制做出了分析。首先,验证了热钱流入规模与房屋销售价格指数之间的关联;然后,考虑到房价上涨包含持久性和暂时性两种类型,利用HP滤波方法将其分解成趋势成分和波动成分,进一步研究热钱和房价之间的相互作用机制。研究结果表明,房价上涨能够引起热钱流入,反过来热钱流入能够引起房价上涨;对于其相互作用机制,我们认为,房价上涨的趋势引起热钱流入,而热钱流入引起房价上涨的波动。这意味着,我国应该加强监测房价波动,稳定房价上涨趋势,以防止由此引起热钱流入进而对房价波动产生影响,最终避免对宏观经济产生冲击。

We have in this paper analyzed the relationship and the interaction mechanisms between the hot money inflow and house price.After validating their relationship,considering that house price′s rise includes the permanent and temporary rise,we divide it into two,the trend component and fluctuation component,to study their interaction mechanisms.The result demonstrates that the hot money inflow and the house price rise are reinforced each other.The mechanism is that the trend component can make the hot money flow into home market which in turn results in the fluctuation of house price.This means that measuring the house price fluctuation and stabilizing the trend of rise can reduce the effect of hot money inflow on the house price fluctuation and the impact on the macro-economy.