摘要
拟用灾害医疗应急管理学科和数学学科之间相互交叉的研究思路，采用建立数学模型等多种研究方法，对海南省区域理化脆弱性和社会脆弱性进行评价，寻找降低本区域脆弱性的方法；应用时间序列模型预测灾害预警级别；用概率的方法计算得到各地区时间和空间上应配备的医疗应急所需的医务人员、设备和药品数，并计算出在此基础上发生各种非常规事件时人员被救治的概率，从而达到提前预警和精确动员医疗应急力量的目的。
A multi-disciplinary study is proposed for emergency response management of disaster medical and mathematical discipline in the paper. The authors propose to evaluate the physical and chemical fragility and social fragility of Hainan province to search for methods to minimize local fragility; predict the level of disaster pre-warning using the time sequence model; calculate the medical personnel, equipments and drugs to be deployed at specific time and space by means of the probability method, and calculate on this basis the probability of the number of persons to be rescued against various emergencies. This aims at sending warning in advance and precisely mobilizing resources for medical emergency response.
出处
《中华医院管理杂志》
北大核心
2011年第6期464-466,共3页
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration
基金
2008年国家自然科学基金项目（30860082）
2009年海南省重点科技项目（090209）
2010年海南省重点科技项目（zdxm20100043）
关键词
数学模型
灾害医学
应急体系
构建
Mathematical model
Medical emergency
Response system
Constructing
