人民币实际汇率不确定性与外商直接投资择机进入

Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty of RMB and Timing of FDI

本文综合运用不确定条件下的投资理论和汇率风险规避理论,建立一个理论分析框架考察人民币实际汇率不确定性对东道国市场导向型和出口导向型外商直接投资(FDI)择机进入东道国市场的影响作用。利用中国产业层面1999:1～2008:4相关季度数据对理论结论进行实证检验。理论和经验研究结论表明:无论在短期还是长期,人民币实际汇率不确定性的增加同时会对出口导向型FDI和东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入产生显著的负面影响作用。人民币实际汇率水平升值会促进东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入,但对于出口导向型FDI择机进入的影响,理论和经验研究结论并不一致。人民币汇率预期升值对东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入影响不明确,但对出口导向型FDI择机进入会产生显著的负面影响。

This study builds a theoretical framework to explore the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty of RMB on the timing of FDI with export oriented and host country market oriented. At the same time, the authors use the quarterly data from Jan. 1999 to April 2008 covering manufacturing industries and service sectors with different market orientation to test their theoretical conclusion. The theoretical and empirical evidence yield three main results, first, the increase of real exchange rate uncertainty will significantly reduce the timing of FDI with both export oriented and host country market oriented. Second, real exchange rate appreciation will promote the timing of FDI with host country market oriented and reduce the timing of FDI with export oriented, however, the empirical evidence does not support the later theoretical conclusion. Third, the impact of the real exchange expected appreciation on timing of FDI with host country market oriented is ambiguous, while real exchange rate expected appreciation would significantly reduce the timing of FDI with export oriented.