M2/GDP比率对资产价格变化影响的实证研究被引量：1

Empirical Studies on Correlation between M2/GDP Ratio and Asset Price

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摘要选取2001—2010年间的季度数据,利用误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数对中国M2/GDP比率对资产价格变化的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:M2/GDP比率与股票价格存在负相关关系,同时对股票价格的影响还存在着时延性,M2/GDP比率对房地产价格的影响几乎为零。这一结论为中国股市价格泡沫提供了一个早期预警指标,具有很强的政策意义。 This article takes 2001-2010 quarterly data,uses error correction model and impulse response function to empirically analyze the impact of China＇s M2/GDP ratio on asset prices change.Results show that： M2/GDP ratio and the stock price is negatively correlated to the stock price,and the influence of ductility is still exist;while M2/GDP ratio on the influence of real estate prices are almost zero.This conclusion for China＇s stock price bubble provides an early warning index,and has strong policy significance.

作者赵建军陈智君刘凤根

机构地区西安交通大学经济与金融学院西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心湖南商学院财政金融学院

出处《统计与信息论坛》 CSSCI 2011年第5期71-76,共6页 Journal of Statistics and Information

基金国家社会科学基金项目<证券市场波动与宏观经济波动的关系研究>(10BGL056) 湖南省社会科学基金项目<资产价格波动对居民财产性收入分配影响的实证研究>(09YBA086) 湖南省高等学校科学研究项目<防止资产价格过快上涨和抑制资产泡沫问题研究>(09C587)

关键词流动性过剩 M2/GDP比率资产价格 liquidity surplus M2/GDP ratio asset prices

分类号 F830.91 [经济管理—金融学]

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