发达国家央行拉开加息序幕

Central banks in developed countries start to raise interest rates

2011年初以来,由于石油等国际大宗商品价格大幅上升,发达国家的通货膨胀压力日益增大。文章在依次分析欧洲、英国、美国的经济与通胀发展形势乃至其货币政策决策者观点后指出,欧洲中央银行加息拉开了发达国家央行加息的序幕,预计年内欧央行还可能加息;英格兰银行将视经济情况决定年内加息时机;美联储在退出量化宽松货币政策后,可能于今年底或明年初提高美元基准利率。

Since the beginning of 2011, inflationary pressure in developed countries has been increasing due to sharp rises in prices of major international commodities such as oil. After analyzing circumstances surrounding the economies and inflation developments in Europe, the UK and the US and the monetary policy viewpoints of their decision-makers, this paper shows that the interest rate increase implemented by the European Central Bank may have opened the curtain on a rising interest rate prologue in other developed countries and that the European Central Bank can be expected to increase interest rates again before the end of the year. The decision for the Bank of England is the timing of an interest rate increase within this year based on economic circumstances. The Federal Reserve might increase US benchmark interest rates at the end of this year or early in the new year after exiting from its quantitative easing policy.