美国居民储蓄变动对中国经济增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Household Exchange Savings on China's Economy Growth

利用2001～2009年的季度数据,通过向量自回归模型对美国居民储蓄变动对中国经济影响进行了实证研究。研究表明:美国居民储蓄率变动和中国经济增长之间存在负相关性,美国居民储蓄变动对中国经济增长的冲击作用为-3%。鉴于美国居民储蓄率有可能进一步提高、美国对中国的贸易依赖性减弱和中美两国之间贸易纷争不断的现实,保持我国国民经济又好又快发展必须在扩大内需与出口多元化上多下功夫。

The dynamic relationship was studied with sample date from the quarter of 2001 to 2009 by using the VAR model.The results show that there exist strong negative correlation between the U.S.household savings rate and China＇s economic growth,and the role of U.S.household exchange savings on China＇s economic growth is -3%.In view of the further improve of the U.S.household savings,the reduced dependence with the United States from China＇s trade and the reality of the trade disputes between China and the United States,China must take more effort to expand domestic demand and diversity China＇s exports to keep our national sound and rapid economic growth.