世界石油出口能力预测及对中国石油进口的影响

The World's Oil Export Capacity Forecast and Its Impact on China's Oil Import

中国作为世界第二大石油消费国，研究世界石油出口能力具有重要意义。本文针对以往石油产量研究方法的不足，建立多循环模型对石油产量进行预测；同时，结合对石油消费量的预测分析了世界石油出口能力。结果显示世界石油出口能力的峰值平台期出现在2006～2016年，高峰出口能力可达27．52亿吨。针对世界石油出口能力未来走势，重点分析了世界石油出口能力下降对我国可进口石油量和进口石油价格的影响，指出未来我国石油进口量将不断减小，进口石油价格将不断上涨。

As the second largest oil consumption country in the world, it＇s very important for China to research the world＇s oil export capacity. Firstly, a muhicyclic model, which is established after analyzing the disadvantages of the current forecast ＂models, is applied to forecast the future oil production. Besides, the oil consumption is calculated by the OCPC （Oil Consumption per Capita）method. At last, the world＇s oil export capacity is predicted by taking oil consumption from oil production. The forecast result shows that the world＇s oil export capacity will reach its peak plateau between 2006 and 2016, with a peak export capacity of 2.752 billion tons, and then decrease. Some serious influences for China＇s oil import, which mainly are the decline of the avaliable oil import and the increase of the import price, will be generated because of the decline of the world＇s oil export capacity.