我国社会保障支出对居民消费需求的影响研究

Study on Impact of Social Security Expenditure to Residents' Consumption Demand

社会保障支出对居民消费需求产生挤出或挤入效应是最近关注的焦点之一。本文利用1987-2009年的省级面板数据建立了社会保障支出与居民消费需求之间的个体固定效应变截距模型。实证研究结果发现:我国各省市的社会保障制度完善程度不同,间接造成各省市居民消费水平存在巨大差异;社会保障支出的增加对居民消费需求存在显著的"挤入效应",有助于扩大居民消费需求。基于实证检验结果,最后针对完善社会保障制度提出相关建议。

Whether the effect of social security expenditure on residents＇ consumption demand is positive is a hot issue in academic field.The paper establishes a variable intercept model of the fixed effect of social security expenditure on residents＇ consumption demand from 1987 to 2009 using the panel data of China＇s 29 provinces.The empirical research finds：the different developing degree of social security system in different provinces leads to a huge gap of residents＇ consumption demand in all provinces indirectly;the increase of social security expenditure can produce ＂squeeze effect＂ significantly to residents＇ consumption demand,and then expand this effect.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper proposes related suggestion for improving social security.