货币替代与两岸货币一体化问题思考

A Study on Currency Substitution and Monetary Integration of the Cross-Strait

近年来,两岸经贸交流持续发展,货币合作问题引起了广泛关注。本文引入货币替代理论,对新台币的货币替代问题进行实证分析,发现其货币替代程度很低,主要表现为需求方的货币替代。本文同时对港币的货币替代进行考察,并将其与新台币的货币替代比较。分析表明,港币可以采取货币替代的模式实现与人民币的货币一体化,但新台币不适合采取这一模式。笔者认为可以参考欧洲货币一体化的模式来实现两岸的货币一体化。

In recent years,with the development of the cross-strait trade,the cooperation of currency becomes a hot issue.The paper is to combine the theory of currency substitution to do some research on monetary integration of the cross-strait.Through empirical analysis,the paper finds that the degree of currency substitution is very low in Taiwan.The paper also compares the currency substitution in Hong Kong.It then concludes that we can refer to European monetary integration models to achieve cross-strait monetary union.