后危机时代新兴市场国家的发展前景——以中东欧国家为研究视角

Perspective of New Emerging Market Economies in the Post-Crisis Era——Viewed from Angle of Central and East European Countries

自20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家迈上了经济转轨之路,纷纷从传统的计划经济向市场经济转变,逐步走上了加速发展的道路。然而,由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机使中东欧国家普遍受到冲击。中东欧国家之所以在劫难逃,主要是由于与世界经济的联系日益密切。可以说,导致这些国家遭受厄运的罪魁祸首就是"高外资、高举债"的发展模式。因此,市场体制开放,尤其是金融市场完全开放,对于转型国家来说是一个极为严峻的问题。今后,中东欧等转轨国家要想重新走上良性发展的轨道,不仅要不断克服转轨过程中市场发展的一些缺陷,健全法律法规,恢复和发展实体经济部门,而且还有赖于未来的宏观经济发展及国家政局的稳定状况。当然,这些国家的发展与国际金融宏观大环境更是密不可分。

Since the 1990s the Central and Eastern European countries have embarked on the path of economic transition,turned from traditional planned economies to market economies and gradually changed over to the road of speedy development.But the international financial crisis started by the US subprime credit crisis hit all these countries without exception.The reason why none of them could escape the crisis was their ever closer relations with the world economy.We can well say that their high foreign investment and high loaning development model was first to blame for the disaster they were suffering.Hence,the opening of market system,especially the complete opening of the financial market,is a very stern issue for a transitional country.Hence,in order o re-embark on the track of benevolent development,it is not only a must for transitional countries like central and eastern European countries to consistently overcome the deficiencies in market-oriented development in the process of transition,make healthy the laws and regulations,rehabilitate and development the entity economy departments,but also a must to rely on the future macro economic development as well as national political stability.Of curse,the development of these countries will be much more closely related to the international macro-financial environment.