广西桑蚕原种净种率的时间序列分析

Development regulation on net species rate of silkworm protospecies in Guangxi using time series model analysis

【目的】了解广西桑蚕原种净种率的发展规律,为原种生产管理提供决策依据。【方法】采用时间序列ARIMA模型及季节性结构分量（Seasonal structure component）模型,对广西桑蚕原种净种率的发展规律进行分析研究。【结果】运用SPSS软件对广西2001~2007年每年12批的桑蚕原种净种率序列进行时间序列分析,建立了一个反映广西桑蚕原种净种率规律的ARIMA（1,0,0）统计预测模型,且该模型通过白噪声序列检验;利用该模型对2008年的12个批次桑蚕原种净种率进行预测,发现预测值与实际值较接近。而季节性结构分量模型分析结果表明,广西桑蚕原种净种率在7年里呈逐年下降的趋势,客观反映了广西桑蚕原种的生产规律。【结论】应用时间序列分析方法分析广西桑蚕原种历年生产数据并研究其潜在规律,是一种行之有效的分析方法。

[Objective]The present experiment was conducted to investigate the development dynamics in net rate of silkworm protospecies production in order to develop methods for protospecies management. [Method]The time series ARIMA model and seasonal structure component （SSC） model were used to analyze the development dynamics in net rate of silkworm protospecies. [Result]The time series analysis on net species rate of annual 12 batches of silkworm protospecies was carried out during 2001-2007 in Guangxi using SPSS software and the statistical prediction model ARIMA （1,0,0）, and the net rate dynamics of protospecies was established, which passed the white noise series test. The results showed that the predicted value was close to the actual one. The SSC model analysis results showed a declining trend in net species rate of Guangxi silkworm protospecies in 7 years, which reflected a production trend of Guangxi silkworm protospecies. [Conclusion]The methods used in the present study were found very effective in analyzing the production data and regulation of Guangxi silkworm protospecies.