基于主成分分析基础上的中国蔬菜生产预测

China's Vegetable Production:An Influence Prediction

在对中国蔬菜生产的现状进行论述后,通过对影响蔬菜生产的诸多因素的分析,挑选出十个主要因素,运用主成分分析法将它们进行"降维"归类,再利用回归得出我国蔬菜生产产出的模型。在此基础上,以主成分分析法得出的四个主成分为因变量,各自建立四个主成分的时序模型。结合这些模型对我国蔬菜的生产状况进行未来年份的预测,以期为中国蔬菜产业发展中的政策制定和战略调整提供依据。

The paper analyses the top 10 influences on China＇s vegetable production and the production models. Based on this analysis,the paper suggests four major elements as variables,corresponding to four seasonal models respectively.The paper ends with a prediction of China＇s vegetable production in the years to come and potential policies for production growth.