中国城市化发展进程及展望

History and Future of Urbanization in China

中国的城市化在改革开放后步入了平稳发展期,遵循城市化逻辑增长模型,利用1973-2008年的数据进行估计后得出:中国城市化年均增长速度为0.0412,远远快于0.01729的世界平均水平;2014年左右,中国将结束高速城市化过程,此时的城市化率将达50.11%;中国城市化的饱和值约为84.98%,而67%左右可能是中国未来20年城市化发展的顶部,此后城市化水平会在一个较长的时期维持在70%左右。

Since the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy,the urbanization in China has stepped into a period of stable development.Following the model of the logic growth of urbanization,and making an estimation using the data over the 1973-2008 period,it is discovered that the growth rate of annual average of the urbanization in China is 0.0412,far greater than the world annual level of 0.01729.China will end its high-speed urbanization level by 2014 during which,the rate of urbanization will reach 50.11%.The saturation value of the urbanization in China is about 84.98%,whereas the value of around 67% may be the top of the urbanization development in China in the future 20 years.After that,the urbanization level will be kept at about 70% for a relatively long period.