人民币升值预期与贸易差额:2003～2009年

The Expectation of RMB Appreciation and Trade Balance:2003～2009

通过选取2003-2009年的时间序列数据，分析我国贸易差额的影响因素，并对我国贸易项下的非法资金流动规模进行估算。研究结果表明，在控制人民币实际汇率变动和国外市场需求变动之后，我国贸易差额与人民币升值预期之间的相关关系非常显著；人民币升值预期导致的非法资金流入和国外市场需求的变动可以解释我国的贸易差额；在剔除贸易项下非法资金流动和国外市场需求的影响之后，我国贸易差额与人民币实际汇率呈现出负相关关系。

The effect factors of the balance of payments and the scale of illegal capital flow have been analyzed by the monthly data from 203 to 2009. The results show that China＇s trade balance is significantly related with the expectation of RMB appreciation after controlling the movement of real effective exchange rate and abroad market demand; the illegal capital flow in and the change of abroad market demand which are led by the expectation of RMB appreciation cause the change of trade balance in China; if the effects of illegal capital flow and abroad market demand are excluded, the trade balance would be negatively related with the real effective exchange rate of RMB.