我国税制结构、税负水平与经济增长的关系研究——基于全国30个省级单位面板数据的PVAR分析

An Impulse Response Analysis on the Relationship among Tax Structures,Tax Burden and Growth in China Based on 30 provinces's Panel VAR Model

通过使用PVAR模型和脉冲一响应函数对1994-2008年间我国省级税制结构、税负水平与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究，结果表明，目前我国的经济增长显著地促进了税制结构和税负水平的提高，但税制结构和税收水平的提高没有显著阻碍经济的增长。所以，增加直接税的比重和整体税负水平，不但可以调节贫富差距，促进社会和谐，还可以增加政府支出水平和提高消费率进而促进经济增长。

This paper uses Panel Vector Auto-regression Model and Impulse response function analysis the relationship between tax structures and economic growth over the period 1994-2008 for 30 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） in China, the results indict that, the e- conomic growth improves the tax structures and tax burden, but improvement of tax structures and tax burden did not hampered economic growth. So increaze the proportion of direct taxes and tax burden not only be able to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor and increases social disharmonious, but also can boost economic growth by increasing government spending and consumption rate.