北京市区域生产总值与公路道路设施建设的关系——基于分布滞后模型

Empirical Research on Relationship between GRDP and HighwayInfrastructure Construction in Beijing:Based on Distributed Lag Model

利用Almon方法,建立分布滞后回归模型,对北京市公路里程和GRDP两个经济指标的关系进行了研究,旨在考察道路建设对北京市GRPD的影响。研究表明,公路道路建设对北京区域经济发展具有长期持续的拉动作用。最后,科学推算出北京市公路道路的平均使用年限为22年。

Using the method of Almon,this paper constructs a regressive distributed lag model to study the relationship between highway mileage and GRDP of Beijing so as to explain the effect of highway construction on GRDP of Beijing.The result shows that highway construction exerts a great pushing effect on regional economic growth.Finally,it calculates the average life span of highway in Beijing which is 22 years.