决策者承诺升级:群体决策与个人决策——基于中美两国文化价值的比较研究

Decision-maker's Escalation of Commitment:Group Decision Making and Personal Decision Making——A Comparative Study Based on Cultural Values of China and America

承诺升级是决策者在进行投资决策的过程中产生的非理性行为,而传统的风险控制理论并未给予足够的重视。通过运用情景模拟实验方法,比较不同决策机制下中美两国决策者所表现出来的"承诺升级"的倾向和程度。研究发现:在个体决策情境下,美国的决策者比中国的决策者更容易做出承诺升级的行为,而在群体决策中,则正好相反。这对于拓展传统的风险控制理论,指导跨文化管理下的决策管理具有重要的价值。

Escalation of commitment is the non - rational behavior arising from decision - makers during the process of making investment decisions, but the traditional risk control theory does not give enough attention. Through the use of scenario simulation test, the author compares the tendency and extent of Escalation of commit- ment shown by decision - makers based on the comparison of different decision - making mechanism. Research shows that, U.S. policy - makers are more easily to commit acts of escalation than the Chinese policy makers in the context of individual decision - making, and in group decision making the results is on the contrary. The results have an important value in expanding of the traditional risk management theory and guiding the decision - making under the management of cross - cultural management.