轨道交通装备制造业发展趋势分析

Analysis on the Development Trend of Equipment Manufacturing Industry for Rail Transit

在对"十一五"期间轨道交通装备制造业调研基础上,研究并构建由约束性和评价性两大类发展指标构成的轨道交通装备制造业发展指标体系,结合2006—2009年我国轨道交通装备制造业主要发展指标的实证研究与统计分析,对装备制造业发展趋势进行预测,为合理制定"十二五"期间轨道交通装备发展规划提供量化的科学依据。研究结果表明,随着轨道交通大规模建设的展开和相继投入运营,轨道交通装备制造业的主要经济效益快速增长,节能降耗取得明显成效,科技创新能力大幅度提高;"十二五"期间轨道交通装备将继续呈现大幅增长,动车组、大功率机车、货车的新造需求量与保有量相比将分别有60%,40%,30%以上的增长,城轨车辆的新造需求量与保有量相比将有90%以上的增长。

Based on the investigations of the equipment manufacturing industry for rail transit during the ＂llth Five-Year＂, the development indicator system of equipment manufacturing industry for rail transit was studied and constructed, which consisted of two categories of development indicators, namely, con- straint indicators and evaluation indicators. Combined with the case study and the statistical analysis on the main development indicators of the equipment manufacturing industry for rail transit from the year 2006 to 2009 in China, the development trend of equipment manufacturing industry was predicted so as to provide the quantifiable scientific basis for reasonably making the development plan for rail transit equipment man- ufacturing during the ＂12th Five-Year＂. Results indicate that, along with the expansion and the successive operation of the large-scale construction for rail transit, the main economic benefits of rail transit equip- ment manufacturing industry are increasing rapidly. Remarkable achievements have been made in energy conservation and cost reduction. The ability for scientific and technological innovation has been greatly im- proved. During the ＂12th Five-Year＂, rail transit equipment will be increasing greatly. Compared with the inventory, the demand for new EMUs, high-power locomotives and freight trains will be increased by over 60%, 40% and 30% respectively, and the demand for new urban rail vehicles will be increased by above 90%.