几种中国农村居民食品消费需求模型的比较研究

A Comparative Study of Several Demand Systems on Food Consumption of the Rural Residents in China

本文选取6种需求系统模型,运用中国30个省份农民食品消费截面数据进行了比较研究,得到以下结论:以希克斯需求为理论依据的需求模型拟合优度优于以马歇尔需求为理论依据的需求模型;需求支出弹性及其标准差比较显示,QUAIDS模型的估计结果表现最优,而QES模型的表现最差;数据的秩检验结果显示,3秩模型更适合于研究中国农民食品消费,说明现有研究可进一步改善。因此农民对食物消费需求结构更趋于合理化,但较低的收入水平和较差的消费环境仍是制约农民食品消费结构升级的重要因素。

This paper has selected six demand systems and used sectional data on rural residents food consumption of China in provincial level for a comparative study. The results indicate： Firstly, the demand systems on the basis of Hicks de- mand theory are better than that of the Marshall demand theory; Secondly, comparison of expenditure elasticity and its standard deviation shows that QUADIS model performs the best, while QES model is the worst; Thirdly, the rank test shows that the three - rank models are more suitable for the study of rural residents＇ food consumption, implying that the model used by Chinese scholars can be further improved; Finally, the robust test shows comparison of six models is con- sistent.