广义泰勒规则与中央银行货币政策反应函数估计

General Taylor's Rule and the Estimation of Central Bank's Monetary Policy

本文在扩展基准泰勒方程的前提下,构建了包含金融深化指标、外汇储备变化变量以及中国金融状况指数(FCI)在内的广义泰勒规则函数,并对相关模型进行估计。研究发现,前瞻性反应函数更好地拟合了中国货币政策变动的产出绩效;货币政策规则在一定程度上约束了货币当局的相机抉择行为,可以稳定公众的通货膨胀预期,并为货币政策的操作提供一个名义锚;中国货币当局的利率调控呈现出"逆周期"与"顺通胀"的特征;中央银行的利率调整缺乏弹性,对广义货币供给的绝对数量并不敏感。

This article constructs a function of the General Taylor＇s rule including the index of finance deepening, the change of foreign exchange reserves and the index of China＇s financial situation （FCI） by expanding the original Taylor equation, and estimates the relative models. Conclusions show that the forward- looking function fits the changes in our monetary policy output performance preferably, the regular of monetary policy constraints the flexible choices of the monetary authorities. It can stable the inflation expectation of the public, and provide a namely anchor for the manipulation of monetary policy. The control of the interest rates of the monetary authorities shows ＂reverse cycle＂ and ＂pro - inflation＂ feature; The interest rates adjustment of central bank is lack of elasticity, and is not sensitive to the adequate quantity of general money supply.