工业增长与环境污染关系的实证分析——以新疆为例

通过对国内外经济增长和环境污染关系文献的梳理,笔者发现很多学者研究二者之间关系都是通过拟合EKC曲线来说明,但拟合过程中还存在一些不足,在一定程度上降低了结论的可信度。本文在前人研究EKC的基础上,采用灰色主成分分析方法,构建工业增长环境综合指标,通过拟合三种模型来研究新疆工业增长和环境污染的关系,得出结论:新疆存在具有自身特点的U型特征的EKC曲线,2002年以后新疆工业环境综合指标值随着人均工业产值的上升而不断增加,污染不断加剧;重化工业的快速增长以及由此形成的结构性特征是造成新疆主要污染物排放难以下降并上升的直接原因。因此,建议把节能减排作为新疆工业结构调整的刚性指标,坚决抑制高耗能、高排放产业的增长,加快淘汰落后产能,大力发展循环经济、低碳经济,使工业发展建立在节约能源资源和保护环境的基础之上,真正实现经济又好又快发展的目标。

Through reviewing on the domestic and overseas research on relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution,I have found that many scholars study the relationship between the two curves with fitting the EKC to illustrate;but there are some shortcomings in the fitting process,which reduces the credibility of the conclusions to some extent.On the basis of previous research of the others on EKC,I study the relationship between industrial growth and environmental pollution in Xinjiang by using grey principal component analysis to construct a comprehensive index of industrial environments and fitting three models.Finally,I make a conclusion that its own features of the EKC U-curve exists in Xinjiang;since 2002,the value of comprehensive industrial environment index has been rising with the increase of industrial output per capita and pollution in Xinjiang since 2002.The rapid growth of heavy and chemical industry and the resulting structural features are the direct reason for making major pollutant emissions hard to decline or even increase in Xinjiang.Therefore,I suggest that the energy conservation and emission reduction should be regarded as the rigidity index of Xinjiang industrial structure adjustment;the high energy consumption and high emission industry growth should be strongly inhibited;backward production capacity should be speeded up to eliminate;the circular economy and low carbon economy should be vigorously developed to base industrial development on conservation of energy resources and environmental protection so as to truly achieve the goals of good and fast economic development.