基于主要国家截面数据的虚拟水出口影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Factors Affecting Virtual Water Exporting Based on Section Data of Main Countries

基于39个主要国家的截面数据,选取反映资源、经济、制度、人口四个因素的11个变量,采用逐步回归分析方法对影响虚拟水出口的因素进行实证分析。回归结果表明,耕地面积、人均GDP、水自给率、粮食单产4个变量对虚拟水出口量具有显著影响且均具有正向效应。

Aimed to identify the key factors which affect virtual water trade significantly, this paper selects 11 variables to reflect the elements of natural resources, economy, institutions and population. Employing the Stepwise Regression, this paper tests the variables based on the section data from 39 countries. The results of regression show that arable land, GDP per capita, water self-sufficiency and productivity of grain are the four key variables which determining the exporting of virtual water.