基于Bayes网的武器装备仿真可信度评估

Evaluation of Simulation Credibility of Weapon System Based on Bayes Net

武器装备仿真系统输出结果的正确性和可用性,直接影响基于仿真的决策。因此,仿真可信度评估是非常关键的问题。根据仿真开发过程的特点,认为仿真系统的可信度由两部分构成:基于模型开发过程的可信度和基于仿真输出结果的可信度;进而提出了基于Bayes网的仿真可信度综合评估方法,并且应用该方法对某武器装备仿真系统可信度进行了具体评估,验证了该方法的有效性。

The correctness and usability of the weapon system simulation and its output directly affect the decision.Therefore the credibility of simulation is vital in application.The credibility was studied based on simulation development and it was proposed that the simulation credibility consists of two factors： the credibility based on model developing process and the credibility based on simulation results.Furthermore,the evaluation methods based on Bayes net evaluate the simulation credibility of complex simulation system.Finally the concrete simulation-weapon system simulation was evaluated,and through evaluation the Bayes net method proves effective.