急性弛缓性麻痹病例监测系统运转状况的灰色关联分析

Grey correlation analysis of the running situation of surveillance system of acute flaccid paralysis(AFP)cases from 1994 to 2009 in Anhui Province

目的通过评价安徽省急性弛缓性麻痹（AFP）病例监测系统的运转质量,查找该监测系统在运转过程中存在的不足,以巩固安徽省无脊灰成果。方法应用灰色关联分析法,采用9项评价指标对1994~2009年安徽省AFP病例监测系统的运转质量进行评价。结果 1994~2000年AFP病例监测系统运转质量稳步提升;2001年监测质量下降明显;2002年各项监测指标迅速回升,并达到历史最佳水平;2003年受＂非典＂疫情影响,监测质量＂滑坡＂,2004~2009年AFP病例监测系统运转质量稳中有升。结论安徽省AFP病例监测系统保持着较高的运转质量,具备良好的发现输入性脊灰病毒病例和疫苗衍生病毒病例的能力。灰色关联分析法原理清晰,方法简单,评价结果全面、客观,与实际情况吻合。

Aim To evaluate the whole running-quality of surveillance system of acute flaccid paralysis（AFP） cases from 1994 to 2009 in Anhui Province.Methods Nine surveillance indicators of AFP cases surveillance system in Anhui province were picked up for evaluation its running situation from 1994 to 2009 by grey correlation analysis.Results The whole running-quality of AFP case surveillance system in Anhui Province keptscaling up steadily from 1994 to 2000,declined markedly in 2001and 2002;it went down sharply in 2003 because of the SARS impact,kept steady-going and showed a up-going trend in 2004～2009.Conclutions The AFP cases surveillance system has been running steadily and it is capable of detection of imported wild poliovirus or vaccine-derived poliovirus in time.The method of grey correlation analysis is a simple,all-round and objective one in terms of synthetical evaluation of running situation of AFP cases surveillance system.