基于灰色系统理论的北京市对外贸易预测

A Forecast of Foreign Trade of Beijing Based on the Gray System Theory

一个国家或地区的对外贸易受国内外诸多因素的影响和制约,会在很多方面呈现出一定的不确定性,可用灰色系统理论来对一个国家或地区未来对外贸易额进行预测。本文运用对外贸易灰色系统模型,通过数据变换处理,解决了初始数据不符合建模要求的问题,并对2011~2013年间北京市进出口贸易额进行预测。预测结果表明,2011~2013年北京进出口贸易持续增加,北京市出口年均增长率为21%,北京市进口年均增长率为25.5%,进口增长速度略快于出口增长速度,贸易逆差持续增加。

The foreign trade of a country or region is influenced by many factors at home and abroad.It always shows some uncertainty,so grey system theory can be used to predict the foreign trade.In the model of foreign trade gray system GM（1,1）,using data transform processing,this paper solves the problem that the initial data do not meet modeling requirement.This paper forecasts Beijing＇s import and export trade in 2011,2012 and 2013.The result shows that the import and export trade of Beijing increase continuously in 2011-2013.An average annual growth rate of exports of Beijing is 21%,and an average annual growth rate of imports of Beijing is 25.5%.The import grows slightly faster than the export.The deficit continues to rise.