需求市场规模变化条件下四维驱动CE测量模型

Four-dimensional driven measurement model of customer equity under the change of mutative demand market scale

为了解决现有顾客资产(CE)测量模型均假设需求市场规模不变且不适用于多品牌企业的局限性,在充分考虑交叉购买和口碑宣传等对CE有重要影响却被其现有测量模型所忽视的因素的基础上,运用马尔科夫矩阵模拟了企业间的竞争和顾客的品牌转换,并采用趋势预测法将需求市场规模的变化因素引入CE测量模型,最终构建了需求市场规模变化条件下的四维驱动CE测量模型.在此基础上运用线性回归分析、主成分分析以及Logit回归分析等统计方法对模型进行了应用.研究结果发现,顾客数量变化引起了CE价值的显著变化,需求市场规模的变化因素是测量CE时不可忽视的因素.此模型能更准确的测量CE并具有很强的可操作性和实践指导性.

To solve the problem of limitation of assuming constant market demand scale and not applying to multi-brand enterprises in most measurement models of customer equity（CE）,this paper applied markov matrix to simulate the competition between enterprises and the brand switching of customers,and analyzed the influence of mutative demand market scale on CE with the method of trend forecasting,based on full consideration of cross-purchases and propaganda of public praise,which had significant impact on CE measurement but were ignored in most models.Eventually a four-dimensional driven measurement model of CE under the condition of mutative demand market scale was established.In the application study of the model,forecast method,linear regression method,principal component analytical method and logistic regression analysis were used to measure samples’ CE.The results showed that the change of customer quantity had caused remarkable change of CE,and the mutative demand market scale was a key factor to be reckoned with.This model can make more accurate measurement of the CE and is operable,so that it can guide practice more effectively.