江西省城市化与经济发展关系分析

Analysis on Urbanization and Economic Development Shift of Jiangxi Province

近年来随着经济的发展,江西省城市规模不断扩大,城市化与经济增长两者关系变化较大。利用近20 a城市化率、经济增长及国民生产总值等时间序列资料,对江西省城市化总体发展特征、空间发展特征及与产业结构等进行分析,在此基础上对城市化水平与GDP的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。结果表明:江西省城市化水平进程呈现前期发展缓慢,后期加速;城市化水平总体偏低;城市化水平在空间分布上处于不平衡状态;城市化与经济结构相关性明显。同时城市化与GDP均是平稳的时间序列,两者之间具有长期协整性并存在双向因果关系,对其直接回归预测发展走向是可行的。

With economic development in recent years,expanding the city in Jiangxi province,the relationship between urbanization and economic growth changes become one of the current research.In this paper,nearly 20 years urbanization,economic growth and gross national product and other long-term time series data on the characteristics of the overall development of urbanization in Jiangxi Province,space development and industrial structure characteristics and related features were analyzed,on the basis of urbanization level of GDP,cointegration and causality research.The results indicate that： the process of urbanization level in Jiangxi province shows the slow development early and post-acceleration;the overall level of urbanization is low,middle and lower position in the country;the level of urbanization in the state spatial distribution is uneven;urbanization and economic structure are obvious.Both urbanization and GDP are stationary time series,cointegration between the long-term and a two-way causal relationship between its development trend of direct regression is feasible.