碳税政策的减排效果与经济影响

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

采用基于动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)构建的能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了在考虑能源利用效率提高的基础上,不同碳税税率以及碳税收入使用方式的减排效果及对经济的影响。结果表明,与基准情景相比,如果碳税收入直接归政府所有,征收30、60、90元/tCO2碳税,2020年的减排率分别为5.56%、10.45%和14.74%,GDP损失率分别为0.04%、0.10%和0.18%。征收碳税可实现的减排量,分别相当于实现2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降40%的目标所需减排量的9.9%、18.6%和26.2%。将碳税收入返还给企业和居民,能在一定程度上缓解对企业和居民的负面影响。

This paper aimed to examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation and economic growth in China by using an energy-environment-economic model based on dynamic CGE model. The results show that, 30, 60 and 90 yuan RMB/t CO2 of carbon tax rate may lead to a reduction of CO2 emission by 5.56%, 10.45%, 14.74% and GDP loss rate by 0.04%, 0.10%, 0.18% respectively in 2020 if carbon tax revenues belong to the government. The emission reductions contribute 9.9%, 18.6%, 26.2% to the target that Chinese CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will reduce by 40% by 2020, from 2005 levels. Negative impacts to enterprise and household will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are recycled to them.