政策变迁的间断与平衡——一个模型的介绍与启示

The Punctuated Equilibrium of Policy Chang:On the Introduction and Enlightenment of Punctuated Equilibrium Model

以逻辑经验主义为基础的政策变迁研究只强调政策的渐进性变迁,而忽略政策的间断性变迁。建立在库恩科学范式基础上的"间断—平衡模型"解释了长时期的政策稳定过程中伴有偶尔的急剧变迁的现象,为政策变迁研究提供了新的分析框架。通过对该模型的理论基础、解释过程的介绍,最后提出它对我国政策变迁研究的启示。

Research of policy change based on logical empiricism only emphasizes the incremental policy change,but ignores the punctuated one.＂Punctuated Equilibrium Model＂ based on Kuhn＇s Paradigm effectively explains the phenomenon of occasionally dramatic changes in the long-term policy stability,and provides a new framework for the explanation of the changes.This article introduces the Model＇s theory basis and its interpretation process,and then proposes its enlightenment on research of policy change in our country.