三种下垫面温度及结冰预报模型研究

Research on a numerical model for predicting three types of underlying surface temperature and ice

应用地表热量平衡方程,考虑太阳短波辐射、大气和地面的长波辐射、潜热、感热传输等能量之间的平衡,并考虑水汽、气溶胶、浮尘以及云等对太阳短波辐射的吸收和散射,建立了一种较实用的下垫面温度预报模型.应用湖北省恩施和金沙2009年冬季2月对土壤、水泥、沥青三种不同下垫面温度和自动气象站的常规气象要素观测进行模拟分析,并与该时段内所测到的三种下垫面温度进行对比,结果表明:两地三种下垫面温度的预测值与实测值的相关系数均在0.95以上,标准差均小于2,预报误差在±3℃以内的频率高达95.20%、96.41%、93.57%和91.19%、94.16%、88.18%,表明模型具有较高的预报水平,且对冬季不同天气条件下下垫面温度预报结果均较好,特别对于低于0℃时的预报准确性较高,可以运用于冬季高速公路路面结冰状况的实际预报中.

By using underlying surface energy balance method, considering the balance among solar short-wave radiation, atmospheric and ground long-wave radiations, latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes, a forecasting model for three kinds of underlying surface temperature is established, in which the parameterizations of absorption and scattering of vapor, aerosols, dusts and clouds are also adopted. Based on the observations of three different underlying （including soil, concrete and asphalt） surface temperature and the automatically collected meteorological sensor measurements during January and February of 2009 winter in Enshi and Jinsha, Hubei province, the underlying surface temperature forecasting model is validated. The results show that all the predictions of the three kinds of underlying surface temperature at the two stations are well correlated with the observations more than 0. 95, and the standard deviations are smaller than 2, and the frequencies of prediction errors between --3 and 3~C are so high that respectively reach up to 95.20~//oo, 96.41X, 93.57~, and 91. 19~, 94. 16%, 88. 18~, which indicate the model has a good performance in the forecasts. Besides, the good predictions in three different weather conditions, especially when the underlying surface temperature is below 0℃, prove that it can be quite useful in the prediction of slippery road in winter.