2010年12月至2011年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

The Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec.2010 to Feb.2011

文章对2010年12月至2011年2月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:三家模式对大尺度环流形势演变和调整及对850 hPa温度变化都有较好的预报能力。比较而言,随预报时效延长EC模式对北方地区850 hPa温度的预报性能最好,而对南方地区,JP模式标准误差最小。在南方地区,三家模式温度预报场与零场的相关系数较北方地区偏低。对南支槽系统,JP模式预报的强度偏强,EC模式效果最好。三家模式对地面冷高压的预报均偏弱,且EC和T639模式误差的大值区出现在高压后部。

The performance of medium-range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639,ECMWF and Japan from December 2010 to February 2011.The results show that the three models are capable of predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation and temperature of 850 hPa successfully.In northern China, EC model has better performance than T639 and JP models in terms of predicting temperature at 850 hPa, whereas in southern China standard deviations for JP model are smallest.In southern China,correlation coefficients between initial fields and forecasts of 850 hPa temperature for the three models are all lower than those in northern China.In forecasting of south branch trough,the forecasts of JP model are stronger than its initial fields and the performance of EC model is the best.The models all predict the weak surface anticyclone,and for T639 and EC models the errors are mainly located in the northwest of the anticyclone.