中国出口增长的激励机制(Ⅱ)——实证分析

THE INCENTIVE MECHANISM OF CHINA’S EXPORTS GROWTH(Ⅱ) —EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

应用已建立的出口模型对中国改革开放以来（１９７８－ １９９６）的出口增长趋势进行了实证分析．在运用 Ｈｓｉａｏ 程序选出最优解释变量的基础上；应用协整方法检验变量间的长期稳定关系，即协整关系；进而建立用来描述中国出口增长由短期波动向长期均衡调整的动态过程的误差修正模型．实证分析结果表明，所有解释变量的估计系数具有我们建模时设定的符号；并且变量之间存在唯一的长期稳定关系．短期动态模型不仅具有令人满意的拟合效果，而且具有结构稳定性．

In order to apply the model built to analysis the trend in exports of China in the reform period(1978 to 1996), the Hsiao procedure is used to choose optical macroeconomic variables,which are constructed by the theoretical model.Based on integration and Johansen Juselius cointegration test findings,this paper constructs an error correction model(ECM),which describes the mechanism of adjustment to long term equilibrium.It is found that exists a unique longrun relationship among the varibales included in the model over the period 1978 to 1996,and that all parameters estimated are of the expected sign.The error correction model not only fits the actual well,but also maintains overall stability.