中国贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性关系

A Research on the Relationship among Trade openness,Trade Structure and Inflation Uncertainty in China

完全预期到的通货膨胀在理论上并不会对真实经济活动产生实质性的影响,通货膨胀的真正危害在于它的不确定性。随着贸易开放的不断扩大和深化,影响中国通货膨胀的不确定性的因素变得更加复杂。本文利用EGARCH模型估计了中国的通货膨胀不确定性,并在此基础上利用协整分析方法检验了贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性的关系。研究表明:贸易开放度的提高对通货膨胀不确定性具有负向的影响;贸易结构的变化对通货膨胀不确定性具有正向的影响。

In theory,Inflation that is expected completely will not have substantial effects on real activities.The real harm of inflation is its uncertainty.With the continuous expansion and deepening of trade liberalization,the factors that affect China＇s inflation uncertainty become more complex.This paper uses EGARCH model to estimate China＇s inflation uncertainty,and investigates the relationship among trade openness,trade structure and inflation uncertainty by the method of cointegration analysis.The results show that：Increased trade openness has a negative impact on inflation uncertainty;Changes in the structure of trade have a positive impact on inflation uncertainty.