货币增速剪刀差与CPI相关性的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Correlation of Scissors Gap of Money Supply Growth and CPI

货币供应量作为我国的货币政策中介目标存在很多争议,但是现阶段依然具有不可替代的作用,在重视货币总量的同时,应分析货币结构的变化,实现对货币供应量中介目标的改良是一个现实选择。本文通过对2001年1月—2010年12月的宏观月度数据的研究,发现货币增速剪刀差与CPI之间存在着显著的正相关关系。在样本期内,货币增速剪刀差与通货膨胀之间互为格兰杰因果关系,货币增速剪刀差的变化体现为4期之后的CPI变化,当期货币增速剪刀差每增加一个单位则4个月之后的CPI上升0.049个单位。央行应将货币结构尤其是货币增速剪刀差作为货币供应量数量指标的补充,同时考虑对货币结构进行调控,以增强货币政策效用。

Applying money supply as the intermediate target for monetary policy in China is controversial, but at present money supply still plays an irreplaceable role. Therefore, while valuing the currency amount, we should also analyze the changes in the currency structure, and improve money supply as an intermediate target for monetary policy. After studying the monthly macro statistics from January 2001 to December 2010, it is founded that scissors gap of money supply growth has a significant and positive correlation with CPL In the sample period, scissors gap of money supply growth and inflation stand the Granger causality test. The CPI changes 4 periods after the changes of scissors gap of money supply growth, namely, when scissors gap of money supply growth increases by one unit, the CPI of four months will increase by 0. 049 units later. Consequently, the Central Bank should take scissors gap of money supply growth as the complementary intermediate target of money supply. Meanwhile, regulating and control over currency structure should be considered in order to intensify the effect of the monetary policy.