基于灰色预测的建筑工程造价快速估算

The Method Based on Grey Prediction in Quick Cost Estimating of Civil Engineering

以建筑工程造价快速估算为研究对象,运用灰色预测中GM(1,N)建模机理,对建筑工程造价指标进行系统分析,建立建筑工程造价、人工费、工程材料费和机械使用费的状态方程,进而构建建筑工程造价的定义型GM(1,N)预测模型与派生型GM(1,N,x(0))预测模型,对建筑工程造价进行快速估算,最后通过实例验证灰色预测模型在建筑工程造价快速估算中的可行性,估算结果可靠。

This article takes the quick cost estimating of civil engineering as the research object.By applying the grey prediction GM（1,N） modeling mechanism,it analyzes the construction project cost indexes systematically,and sets up a state equation about construction project cost,labor cost,engineering cost of raw materials and mechanical cost.Then the defined prediction model and the derived type prediction model are set up to quickly estimate the construction engineering cost.Finally through examples,it proves that the grey forecasting model is feasibility and the estimating results are reliable in the quick cost estimating of civil engineering.