生态风险评价与风险决策模型及应用——以河西走廊荒漠绿洲开发为例

The Ecological Risk Assessment and Risk Decision Model and Its Application by Taking the Exploitation of Hexi Corridor Oasis as an Example

河西荒漠绿洲地区农业经济系统的耦合将导致其巨大潜在效益的发挥，同时也伴随着生态风险的产生．研究了生态风险的内涵，探讨了系统耦合过程产生生态风险的主要动因，建立了生态风险评价与风险决策的数学模型系列，并用之于农业经济系统的风险管理与防范．

The coupling of agricultural economy system of Hexi corridor Oasis will bring about great potential economic benefits but it will also result in the ecological risks. In this paper the connotation of ecological risk is discussed and the main reasons for the production of ecological risks in the process of the systematic coupling are explored. The mathematical models on ecological risk assessment and risk decision are established and applied to the risk management and control of agricultural economic systems.