应用枚举法估计广州市越秀区女性性工作者的基数

Size estimation study of female sex workers （FSWs） by enumeation method in Yuexiu District, Guangzhou City.

目的：探索在女性性工作者中开展规模估计的简便可行的方法,为艾滋病疫情估计和高危人群干预提供依据.方法：采用枚举法,根据不同街道高危场所规模分层抽样调查,计算各层调查样本的均数、标准差、95%可信区间;推算、汇总,获得目标人群的估计数.结果：以高危场所规模分层计算,女性性工作者规模点估计值和95%可信区间分别为856（620～1372）,占当地15～49岁年龄组女性人口的0.28%（0.20 %～0.44%）.结论：采用枚举法进行女性性工作者规模估计操作简便,结果相对准确,但要注意高危场所规模的分类合理性,以及调查人群的代表性.

Objective To explore the practical and effective methods for size estamation of female sex workers （FSWs） so as to provide evidences for AIDS epidemic estimation and inter-- vention among high risk population. Methods An enumeration method was applied in the survey. Stratified samples were collected according to the size of high-- risk sites in different streets ; the means , standard deviation and 95% CI of each stratum were eaculated. The estimamated number of FSWs was attained by eaculating and aggregating the collected data. Results According to the size of high--risk sites,The numbers of FSWs and their 95%CI were respectively 856（620-1372） ,which were accounted for 0.28%（0.20 %--0.44%）of local female population aged 15-49 years old. Conclusion Enumeation method is practical and effective for size estimation of female sex workers （FSWs） ,and the result are relatively accurate . But the rationality of categories of the size of high--risk sites and the representativeness of sample for the population shoulde be taken into consideration.