基于物理原理的风电场短期风速预测研究

SHORT TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON PHYSICAL PRINCIPLE

对符合功率预测要求的短期风速预测进行研究,提出了基于物理原理的预测方法,该方法以数值天气预报(Numerical-Weather-Prediction,NWP)风速为输入数据,采用粗糙度变化模型与地形变化模型反映风电场局地效应对大气边界层风的影响;通过与不同风况下的实测风速进行比较,表明预测结果基本能满足预测精度的要求,但预测准确性会随风速变化剧烈程度的增强而有所降低;根据误差分析,NWP风速的准确性是影响预测结果的最主要因素。

The short term wind speed prediction, a prediction approach was presented. This approach employs the wind speed from the numerical weather prediction-NWP as an input data, a roughness change model and orographical change model am used to model the local effects of a wind farm. The predicted wind speed was compared with the measured wind speed, under the typical wind conditions. The result showed that the prediction value can basically meet the requirements of prediction precision; the accuracy could change depending on how drastically the wind speed changes. According to the error analysis, the accuracy of the NWP wind speed is the most important fact, and which affects the prediction result.