通货膨胀的预期不确定性

Prediction Uncertainty of Inflation

采用不确定性和预期等方法研究了通货膨胀．通过引入自回归条件异方差（ＡＲＣＨ）模型对我国近年来通货膨胀的预测不确定性问题进行讨论，对通货膨胀预期不确定性的估计及不确定性与通货膨胀水平及其变动的关系进行分析．研究发现，经济增长与通货膨胀之间并不存在此消彼涨的确定关系，通货膨胀的预期不确定性比高通货膨胀本身更易造成对经济增长的危害．从而表明，政府在制定政策时，应注意保持通货膨胀的稳定性．

Inflation prediction uncertainty is a difficult problem in the process of administer inflation. The psychology prediction of behavior subjects is the main reason leading to the inflation prediction uncertainty among the factors of cause inflation prediction uncertainty. In this article, the inflation was studied with the uncertainty and prediction techniques. With auto regressive conditional hetroscedasticity(HRCH) model, it was found there is no regular relations between the economy growth and inflation rate. It was further proved that the inflation prediction uncertainty is more dangerous to the economy growth than the high inflation itself. Therefore the government should take certain policies to keep a stable inflation.