影响中国对澳大利亚出口的若干宏观因素的实证检验

An Empirical Study on Impact of Some Macro Factors on China's Export to Australia

采用协整研究和方差分解等计量经济学方法,就澳大利亚实际收入、相对价格和汇率风险等宏观因素对中国对澳大利亚出口的影响进行了详细的实证检验。检验结果表明,从长期看,上述因素与中国对澳大利亚出口之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,澳大利亚实际收入和汇率风险的增加会导致中国对澳大利亚出口的增加,而相对价格的上升则会引起中国对澳大利亚出口的下降。

This paper focuses on what kind of impact Australia＇s GDP,the comparative price and exchange rate volatility may have on China＇s export to Australia by means of the cointegration test and the variance decomposition.The paper finds that stable long-term relationships exist between the above macroeconomic variables and China＇s export to Australia.Australia＇s GDP and the exchange rate volatility have distinct positive impact on China＇s export to Australia,and the comparative price has a distinct passive impact on China＇s export to Australia in the long run.