通货膨胀预期行为特征与货币政策趋势——基于对货币流通、期货市场与房地产市场的计量验证

Features of Inflation Expectation Behaviour and Trend of Currency Policy——An Analysis based on Quantitative Verification of Currency Circulation,Futures Market and Real Estate Market

通过分析居民、企业部门的通货膨胀预期对消费和投资的影响,发现通货膨胀预期对总需求具有影响,具有较强不确定性的通胀预期引起产出更为显著波动,从而冲销政策效果。低通货膨胀引起的通胀预期对经济的负面影响较小,通货膨胀不稳定性则诱使通胀预期不稳定,并转而引致经济剧烈波动。为了更好实现预期的货币政策效果,必须将通货膨胀率控制在合理范围内,尤其要努力避免恶性通货膨胀的发生,由此中央银行货币政策操作有必要选择通货膨胀目标,使政策对通货膨胀预期产生"锚定"作用。

An analysis of the effects of urban residents and enterprises＇ inflation expectations on consumption and investment shows that inflation expectations have effects on general demand. Even worse, considerably unstable inflation expectations cause so prominent fluctuation that the results of policy might be neutralized. Although expectations caused by low inflation have only limited negative effects on economy, the instability of inflation induces correspondent instability of inflation expectations, which in turn leads to violent fluctuation of economy. Therefore, to achieve expected effects of monetary policy, the ratio of inflation must be restricted to a reasonable scale. Particularly a malignant inflation crisis must be avoided with effort. In this connection, the central bank＇ s operation of monetary policy needs to choose some objective of inflation so that the policy may play an ＂anchoring＂ part to inflation expectations.