基于合作博弈论的感潮河网区污染物排放总量削减分配模型研究

Study on the model of total pollution load allocation in tidal network river regions with Cooperative Game Theory

在给定污染物削减目标的情况下,如何确定各排污区域的分配比例一直是污染物总量分配技术的核心问题,博弈论是解决这一问题的有效尝试。采用合作博弈论方法,以感潮河网区各排污区域为研究对象,充分考虑各区域的污染治理成本、排污策略与环境质量的相互影响,建立了在给定污染物总削减比例条件下各区域环境合作的博弈模型,计算了各种可能联盟的特征函数值,利用Shapley值法进行合作收益的公平分配。结合珠江三角洲西江-石岐河河网区3个区域的环境合作案例说明削减合作的可行性,在总削减比例为15%的约束下,3区域合作削减比例是20.77%、12.82%和12.99%,与合作前相比,3个区域合作后环境成本分别减少了11.83%、2.13%和2%。

It is a focus problem to determine the allocation ratios among the different stockholders in the total load allocation problem after the abatement target is fixed,and the Game Theory is perhaps an effective try to give a solution.A cooperative environmental game model in tidal network river regions was established with Cooperative Game Theory when the total pollutant abatement proportion,and the abatement costs,environmental losses and the interreaction between sewage emission behavior and environmental quality influence were taken into consideration.The characteristic function values were computed for all possible coalitions,afterwards the Shapley values were used to allocate the total load among all the players with consideration of fairness.The Xijiang-Shiqi network river of 3 regions in the Pearl River Delta was taken as a case study to test the model.Under the 15% load abatement scenario,the cooperative cut rates of the 3 regions are 20.77%,12.82% and 12.99% respectively,which means that their environmental costs are reduced by 11.83%、2.13% and 2% compared with non-cooperative strategy.