基于VAR模型的广州经济增长的影响因素分析

本文在VAR模型的基础上,采用1987～2008年广州市的GDP、出口、服务业的有关统计数据,综合运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等实证分析方法对其进行比较研究。分析结果表明:出口和服务业对于经济增长都有促进拉动的作用,都具有正向效应。但是,相对于出口来说,服务业对于经济增长的作用更明显、更持久。这符合经济发展的规律,符合当今世界发达城市的发展规律,为广州市经济决策提供参考依据。

This study,based on the VAR model,using the relevant statistic data of GDP,exports,services in Guangzhou City from 1987 to 2008,analyze the relation of the three factors with the comprehensive use of unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test.The results show that： the export and services play a role in economic growth and have a positive effect.？However,relative to exports,the effect of services to economic growth is more obvious,more durable.This is consistent with the laws of economic development and the current law of development of the world＇s developed cities.It would offer economic decision-making reference for Guangzhou.