广西地区CO_2排放量变化趋势及驱动因素分析

Research on Carbon Emissions Variation Features and Causes in Guangxi

参考《广西统计年鉴》（1991-2010）中的社会经济指标和能源消费统计数据,采用能源消费耗总量及化石燃料系数估算法估算广西地区1991-2009年CO2排放量,归纳出CO2排放量变化趋势,并将因素分析法应用于Kaya恒等式定量分析广西的经济产出规模、人口规模、能源强度及能源结构等驱动因素对CO2排放的影响。1991-2009年广西CO2排放总量呈现明显的递增趋势,单位GDP二氧化碳排放量呈现出下降的趋势,人口和GDP是导致广西高CO2排放的主要原因,能源结构和能源效率的改善在一定程度上减缓了CO2排放的速度。目前广西控制CO2排放量的重点要提高能源效率、发展低碳技术以及优化能源结构。

By referring to the social economic indicators and energy consumption statistics in Guangxi Statistical Yearbook（1991-2010）,the carbon dioxide emission in Guangxi from 1991 to 2009 was predicled and the trend of carbon dioxide emission changes in the future was summarized.The CO2 emission was estimated by total consumption estimation and fossil fuels coefficient estimation.Factor analysis was also used in the Kaya quantitative analysis to estimate the influence of economic output scale,population size,energy intensity and energy structure.From 1991 to 2009,the total carbon dioxide emissions increased obviously.But the carbon dioxide emissions per GDP actually decreased.The population and GDP were the main causes of the high carbon dioxide emissions in Guangxi.The improvement in energy structure and energy efficiency slowed down the carbon dioxide emissions.At present,the key measures to control carbon dioxide emissions were to improve energy efficiency and develop low carbon technology.