人民币汇率与中国-东盟经济体贸易的实证研究

Analysis on the Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and China-ASEAN Economies Trade

本文对人民币汇率与中国-东盟经济体贸易关系进行实证研究。研究发现人民币汇率与中国-东盟经济体贸易存在协整关系,在出口方面,实际汇率升值对出口的正向作用比名义汇率的要大;在进口中,实际汇率对进口的影响比名义汇率的要小。中国-东盟经济体出口贸易对人民币汇率的响应存在"奇异J曲线"效应。政策建议是:全面考虑人民币汇率篮子中各种货币的权重问题,提高对东盟经济体地位的重视,同时要关注中国与东盟贸易中的物价因素。

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between exchange rate and China-ASEN Trade.The Study finds that there is Cointegration between the RMB exchange rate and China-ASEAN economies trade,real exchange rate appreciation on exports have positive effect on exports which is larger than the nominal exchange rate;in imports,the impact of real exchange rate on imports is smaller than nominal exchange rate.As to China-ASEAN economies,export trade on the exchange rate＇s response presents ＂singular J curve＂ effect.Policy recommendations are that RMB exchange rate basket weight should take a comprehensive consideration of the ASEAN economies and at the same time pays much attention to the price factor in China-ASEAN trade.