加息周期下2011年债券市场系统性风险分析

Analysis of Systemic Risk of China's Bond Market in a New Rate Hike Cycle

在通胀预期强烈的背景下,中国的货币政策加速回归常态化,中国进入了新一轮加息周期。加息周期内,收益率曲线震荡将加剧,2011年债券市场面临着更为严重的系统性风险。这将对债券市场健康发展产生不利影响,可能放大资本市场风险,并将影响宏观经济稳定。本文提出发展债券市场、强化债券市场风险管控以及加强中央银行预期管理等政策建议,以解决或缓和债券市场系统性风险可能产生的负面效应。

In the background of strong in inflation expectations,China＇s monetary policy is accelerating the reunification of normalization.China enters a new round of rate hike cycle.While interest rate rising,the yield curve shocks will intensify in 2011,the bond market will face more serious systemic risks.That will adversely affect the healthy development of bond market,and may enlarge the capital market risk,and will affect macroeconomic stability.In this paper we propose the development of bond markets,strengthening the bond market risk control and management,strengthening the central bank policy recommendations to address or mitigate the bond market systemic risk.