云南盈江Ms5．8级地震和缅甸Ms7．2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析

A summary of prediction for the Yingjiang M_s5. 8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma M_s7. 2 earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situation after the earthquake

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法.结合作者前期研究成果——中缅边境地震区未来强震四要素预测结果,并与2011年3月云南盈江M_s5.8级地震、缅甸M_s7.2级地震比较,认为这两次地震都能被作者提出的理论方法提前预测,表明该理论方法能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.此外,本文还对中缅边境地震区未来的地震趋势进行了分析.

Aiming at whether the strong earthquake can be predicted and how to predict, the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method were recently developed by us. Based on this new method, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for China-Burma border seismic zone have been obtained and published in advance. In comparison with the Yingjiang M^5.8 in Yunnan and the Burma M^7.2 occurred on March, 2011, it is shown that the two earthquakes can he predicted in advance according to the theory and method developed by us. Thus, we think this new method has wide applicability for the strong earthquake. Moreover, the earthquake situation in future is also analyzed for the China-Burma border seismic zone.