港城耦合发展动态模拟与调控策略——以连云港为例

Dynamic simulation and regulation of port-city coupling development: Taking Lianyungang as a case

区域系统中港城互动关系具有系统动力学耦合特征,根据SD原理和方法,建立港口与城市耦合的PU-SD模型,解剖港城耦合系统多重反馈机理和各系统相互作用过程。以江苏省连云港为例,运用历史数据拟合,在证明模型具有可靠性和适用性基础上,通过变换经济社会资源等参数,以2008年为基年,对未来30年港城发展进行情景模拟,确定不同发展阶段的港城发展模式。结果表明模型参数变换后的港城耦合关系及变化呈现复杂性和时变性的特点,并符合港城发展周期理论。连云港市根据港城耦合机理及未来变化过程,采用不同调控策略,分阶段推进经济驱动型、资源驱动型和社会驱动型模式,可以实现港城协调发展的目标。

There is a coupling relationship between ports and cities in a regional system according to system dynamics.Based on SD principle and method,this paper establishes a PU-SD port-city coupling model to analyze multiple feedback mechanisms of port-city coupling system and the process of their interaction within the system.The model,which has proved to be reliable and applicable,takes Lianyungang City in Jiangsu Province as an example.Applying historical data fitting,varying economic and social parameters,the model takes 2008 as a base year to produce a scenario simulation for development of the port city in the following 30 years in order to determine appropriate development models for its corresponding phases.The result indicates that port-city coupling relationship and its variation with the parameters modified are complicated and time-varying.This result conforms to the port-city development cycle theory.Therefore,under the guidance of port-city coupling mechanism with its necessary adjustment,Lianyungang City can achieve coordinated development through applying economy-driven,resource-driven and community-driven model according to different phases by exerting different regulating strategies.