中国入境旅游规模分布特征及其变化

Evolution of size distribution of inbound tourism in China

基于规模分布模型的应用探讨,本文利用1999~2008年中国各地市的入境旅游人数数据,分析了中国入境旅游规模分布及其内部结构的特征与变化。结果表明：由于受规模下降趋势变化的影响,以相同门槛规模为取样标准所得的规模分布系数在时间纵向上将具不可比性,此时以相同地区取样的分析结果进行比较分析将更具合理性。全国与东部、中部与西部三大地带的规模分布都属于过渡分布类型,但在一定的门槛规模上又趋近位序-规模分布类型。进一步分析表明,不同空间层次的规模分布都具较强的集中性,但存在不断降低趋势,且这种趋向分散的总体趋势也一致性地体现在内部结构的变化上。再者,随着规模等级的提高,规模分布的集中度在逐渐降低。在区域差异及变化上,三大地带规模分布差异以东部最大,中部最小;但其趋向分散的速度则以中部最快,西部最慢。最后,对各省规模分布的变化与类型分析表明,首位地区变得更为突出的省份倾向有更慢的规模增长速度,而首位比下降的省份倾向有更快的规模增长速度。

The structure and its evolution of inbound tourism size is a dynamic complicated process,which is the significant composition of the development of regional tourism system.Based on the investigation on application of size distribution model,this paper analyzes the features and evolution of size distribution and its interior structure of inbound tourism in China using data of local inbound tourism population from 1999 to 2008.The results indicate that the coefficient of size distribution obtained from the data sample of the same threshold size are incomparable between the different years and the ones of the same region are comparable due to the influence of the changes of size descending.The size distribution type of inbound tourism in China and the Three Zones belongs to transition distribution from 1999 to 2008,and changes to rank-size distribution type when arriving at some threshold size.Furthermore,the concentration of size distribution is the main feature on the different spatial levels,but the degree of the concentration has been descending,and the changes of interior structure is consistent to the fact that the dispersive force of size distribution is stronger than concentrated one from 1999 to 2008.On the other hand,the size distribution of inbound tourism changes from concentration to dispersal along with the increasing of threshold size.The study on the regional disparity suggests that the concentration of size distribution of the East Zone is the strongest and the one of the Middle Zone is the weakest,but the decline of the degree of concentration is the fastest in the Middle Zone and is the slowest in the West Zone.At last,the changes and their types of the provincial size distribution indicate that the primate rate of size distribution is increased in the provinces with lower rate of size growth,while the primate rate is descended in the provinces with higher rate of size growth.